What Does the “Hot Hand” Mean in Tennis?

Good article from the archive’s at “Heavy Topspin”:

In sports analytics, the topic of streakiness–the “hot hand“–is a popular one. Nearly everyone believes it exists, that players (or even teams) can go on a hot or cold streak, during which they temporarily play above or below their true level.

To a certain extent, streakiness is inevitable–if you flip a coin 100 times, you’ll see segments of 5 or 10 flips in which most of the flips are heads. That’s not because the coin suddenly got “better,” it’s a natural occurence over a long enough time span. So if you watch an entire tennis match, there are bound to be games where one player seems to be performing better than usual, perhaps stringing together several aces or exceptional winners.

The question, then, is whether a player is more streaky than would occur purely at random. To take just one example, let’s say a player hits aces on 10% of service points. If he did occasionally serve better than usual, we would observe that after he hits one ace, he is more likely (say, 15% or 20%) to hit another ace. A missed first or second serve might make it more likely than he misses his next try.

My last couple of topics–differences in the deuce/ad court, and the “reverse hot hand” at 30-40–have hinted that tennis may be structured in a way that prevents players from getting hot.

Read More – HERE

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